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Yield Curve Inversion Recession Timer.

Analyzes the notoriously predictive 2Y/10Y Treasury Yield Curve Inversion, calculating the historical onset lag toward official NBER declared economic recessions.

## The Ultimate Macro Indicator

Under normal economic conditions, investors demand a higher interest rate (yield) to lock their money up for 10 years compared to 2 years. When the Yield Curve "inverts"—meaning the 2-Year pays more than the 10-Year—it signals that the bond market is terrified of the immediate future.

### FAQ

**Q: Why does inversion predict recessions flawlessly?**
A: A 2-Year yield implies what the Federal Reserve is doing *right now* (hiking rates to fight inflation). A 10-Year yield implies what the market thinks the economy will look like in the future. When the 2Y is higher than the 10Y, the Bond Market is explicitly telling the Federal Reserve: "Your policy is too tight, you are suffocating businesses, and you will be forced to slash rates aggressively in the future to bail out a broken economy."